Prosper Group client, Congressman Dan Burton, was victorious yesterday. I was encouraged by Dan's victory for a number of reasons:
The Crossover voting hurt Dan Burton more than John McGoff. Internal polling showed a 20-25 point victory on Election Day (also verified by polling done by a third part- Howey). Voter ID calls in the last 4 days showed undecideds going 60-40 for Burton. So what happened? Conservative primary voters who would have voted for Dan Burton instead participated in Operation Chaos. They won't do that in 2010.
McGoff didn't eat into Burton's victories outside of Indy metro. Dan delivered 3 to 1 margins outside of Marion and Hamilton counties. This has always been Burton's base (he lost Marion County in his last major challenge). He's always performed well in the traditional Republican areas in the other 9 counties in the district. McGoff didn't budge numbers there despite considerable effort (and some nasty mail in the last week).
The atmosphere in 2008 was the most advantageous for defeating Dan and is unlikely to get better for future challengers. Dan's recent controversy regarding his vote record will be old news in 2010. Burton's vote record ended up highest in the delegation. Incumbents had been soundly defeated in 2007, and the media was salivating for another upset. However, even a well-financed challenger was unable to do it. McGoff had every advantage a challenger could afford, but was unable to deliver.
McGoff was the 8th best financed challenger in the USA. He spent over $500,000 in his campaign to defeat Dan Burton, including $60,000 of his own money. That's before we count the money from the half dozen 48-hour reports he filed (I think they come up close to an additional $50-60,000).
Burton faced a hostile liberal media, bent on helping John McGoff defeat Dan. For example, in the year before the election, the Indianapolis Star printed 42 substantive articles, letters and editorials about Dan Burton. Of those forty, only 6 could be rated neutral to positive. The other 36 were primarily negative- and mostly harsh. The Indianapolis Star became unpaid McGoff attack dogs, tripling the effectiveness of McGoff’s funding. Again, with little or no results.
The popularity rating of the US Congress has hit rock bottom and is unlikely to get worse. With a new President, be it Republican or Democrat, a new air will be in Washington.
Things should go much smoother now that Burton has handed an opponent a sound beating. I vote for letting Burton choose when he retires and moving on to defeat Democrats like Ellsworth, Donnelly and Hill. Republicans like McGoff should think twice before wasting their energy trying to defeat Dan Burton because they want a head up as his replacement.
How can anyone support Dan Burton?
He's never had a real job. He is the DEFINITION of a career politician. McGoff might have been well funded as a challenger, but the reason Dan won was because he raised SUBSTANTIALLY more than McGoff from OUTSIDE of Indiana.
He doesn't work for Indiana anymore. Look at his campaign finance reports--he's got every lobby group/special interest acronym in and outside of the beltway.
Dan Burton is a perfect example of the failures of democracy and our electorate system.
Posted by: John Galt | May 10, 2008 at 06:22 PM
It seems like I get a post like this one from some Demmy every time we talk about Dan Burton. It reminds me of their attitude after the Bush victory of 2004. Next you'll be threatening to move to Canada if Obama isn't elected.
The voters in Indiana's 5th want a Conservative Congressman. They have one in Dan Burton and voted widely to re-elect him despite the challenges he faced. If you would like to see a lefty like McGoff or Hillary as your Congressman, I suggest you move to California.
Posted by: Kurt Luidhardt | May 12, 2008 at 07:46 AM